Commentaries on the market
Comments Thursday night, 2/25/10
I am going to try to post nightly comments on my web site starting this weekend (not quite set up for it yet). Was going to wait and start this weekend, but have some potentially very good patterns tonight so want to make some quick comments.
Future always unknown but have some potentially very positive patterns in precious metals and foreign currencies (Canadian and Australian dollars, Euro and Swiss (Pound also but not so much), and potentially very negative pattern in US Dollar. Stocks also potentially quite positive. (Had a next day up signal for stocks from VIX today.) If can get even moderate up day in these markets tomorrow (down in dollar) would generate some very positive line patterns, need to get that up day though. Stronger the close the better the odds are starting a good sized, sustained up move. Unchanged (or only slightly higher) or especially lower closes tomorrow (Friday) and sidelines would be indicated (need to turn the SL’s up and need up days to do so).
Cotton is solidly Bullish/concurrent to upside and even though on big couple week rally, can still make good case to initiate new longs. Patterns like have in May Cotton at moment, and the past couple weeks action, are the type that have good odds for quite a bit more upside action and for quite a while (several more weeks, at least). When up move this strong and persistent will have shorts really stuck and lots of bulls either not in or not in heavy enough. This creates situation when any dip is met with good buying and so just do not get much down. Future always unknown, but see only risk here is having to ride through quick (half day to two days down) and moderate (100 - 300 points from any recent high) dip, with upside potential still substantial. Tough to buy when on this big and persistent a rally, but on past basis the odds and potential are actually better - especially if the dollar sells off, which more possible now than has been in quite a while.
While trends still down in grains, are showing some upside warning signs. Corn best for any against trend longs. Corn on recent highs while beans have sold off forty cents past few days, this impressive action. COT very bullish on corn (as well as Beans and Wheat). ML’s on decent up cycles in all grains. SL’s making higher lows/highs, especially in corn. Odds always against trade when go against trend, but down trends in these markets only slight and have some decent momentum positives. Personally prefer to pass on any shorts despite trends and instead see against trend longs as worth risk (should be able to use stops in May corn in 3.78 - 3.80 area, 4.95 - 5.00 area in May Wheat) - Bean picture a little too mixed/negative to make case for longs, but if had to be in would be long, not short, and close above 9.60 in May tomorrow would make longs tempting).
Bottom line - See some quite decent signs may be on verge of good sized, sustained (weeks) up moves in precious metals (and copper), currencies, cotton, stocks, crude and possibly corn, wheat and beans. Stronger these markets might close tomorrow the better the odds this case (starting good up), but unchanged (area) or lower closes and then sidelines probably safer.
Web site address is intelligentfuturestrading.com or californiapublishing.com.
If get anything up on site probably will not be until Sunday and when do will advise, if unable will send comments out by e-mail.
Chick Goslin
