Commentaries on the market
Comments as of close Tues, 3/2/10
Had some outside commitments on my time today and so not enough time or energy to put out full report tonight, but in metals, currencies and crude had today what thought would see on Monday - solid up day. Patterns in stocks, bonds, metals, currencies and crude all still quite positive and so “should” go higher.
Last night (Monday night) had good example how Plat tends to lead gold and silver. Plat was firm all night while other two were on weak side. Once saw this and with patterns on all three still positive was enough reason to go back long. If trade gold/silver should always keep an eye on what platinum is doing. This second time in past week independent strength in platinum has been big help to me in getting/staying long gold/silver. I don’t trade plat since just too thin, but for whatever reason it does tend to lead the other two.
Same with stocks in that Russell and NDX consistently tend to lead Dow and S & P. For second day in row Russell much stronger than dow/s & p and this indicates “should” continue higher in stocks as whole. Patterns there still positive and trends getting little more to upside as well.
Patterns in bonds/notes and yen still remain about most clearly positive on board and so for whatever reason both should go higher. No idea from logical point of view why/how bonds would go higher, but this what lines and COT say and rarely pays to argue when this case.
Finally got decent down day in cotton, will see if can get another day or so down and if so “should” be good buying opportunity. First dip after this big and persistent a move up almost always excellent buying opportunity. Basis lines longs remain fully justified.
Still believe grains making major bottom and saw today’s sideways action as positive, but need to see little more sideways or up before can make any kind of legitimate case for longs. However, Bean Oil now legitimately bullish and so can make legitimate case for longs there already, believe others will eventually do same.
While trends solidly down in pound, euro and swiss just no interest in shorting or being short euro/swiss when have type of momentum patterns have there, and still have negative short to intermediate term pattern in dollar index so chance making major top there still exists. Hard to see how many (any?) specs could still be long euro/swiss since they have really been pressured to downside recently, yet price keeps coming back and this warning sign for upside.
Sorry that’s all have time or energy for today, will see what get tomorrow and will try to put out something more detailed then.
Chick Goslin
