Commentaries on the market
Chick Goslin’s commentaries on the market
Comments as of close Mon, 5/3/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Mon, 5/3/10 Back to about as unsure of all these markets as ever tend to get. Only really clear pattern at moment is short side of yen and mistakenly passed on that one. Commodities in general starting to act weak even when patterns positive and this not good sign for upside of any markets other than interest rate markets since may show weakening economy. Don’t follow it in letter but copper has been very weak recently and showing clear signs of trend change to downside. Same now case in lumber and both these markets are reasonable ... Read More
Comments as of close Fri, 4/30/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Fri, 4/30/10 Trading is strange in that many times when am most optimistic on trades they don’t work out that well and when am most skeptical they can work quite well. Was quite unsure of all positions Thursday evening yet Friday turned out to be a very good day. Big down moves in stock market are always unlikely from historical perspective, but if ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/29/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Thurs, 4/29/10 Very difficult week since many markets very choppy with lots of big ups and downs and at moment not much net change on week in any market. When get this choppy in both prices and lines usually best to go to sidelines or at least keep positions light. When in doubt, of which I currently have an abundance of, always can make case to just go with the lines on any new with trend signals. New line pattern signals are going long Crude (as well as Gasoline and Heating Oil) and going long Gold and Silver. ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 4/28/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Weds, 4/28/10 This european debt business is making trading extremely difficult due to the big intra-day moves in both directions. If can handle the swings continue to see good downside potential in european currencies (and maybe Au and Ca$) and upside potential in US Dollar (and maybe yen). See good downside potential in stocks and upside in bonds/notes, but action in bonds/notes continues to be disappointing. ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 4/27/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Tues, 4/27/10 Continuing the monthly fund drive: Anyone who has “donated” in the past month or so will receive the daily letter via e-mail right sent after finish writing it; however, starting tonight I will not post the letter to the web site until “later” (meaning anywhere from several hours later up to early the next morning). So it will be like the exchanges do with their quotes, letter still will be free but only on a delayed basis, while for those who pay/donate letter will be sent out as soon as ready ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 4/26/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Mon, 4/26/10 End of month and so will have monthly “fund drive.” If want me to continue to put out this daily letter then need to “donate” to the cause. Not sure about anyone else but doing this letter past two months has definitely helped my trading; however, too much work to continue to do it unless have decent “encouragement” from those reading it, i.e., you. So if you want to continue to read these comments you need to donate $50 (or more if comments have been particularly helpful) by either ... Read More
Comments as of close Friday, 4/23/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Fri, 4/23/10 In the “old days” (up until 1980 or so) markets were open from Monday AM to Friday PM and only open about a third or quarter of each day. This meant had lots of time every day to “read” markets while they were closed (i.e.,not moving). Today situation very different in that markets start trading Sunday afternoon and essentially don’t stop until Friday afternoon (take breaks of an hour or several hours every afternoon depending on market). This means it’s very difficult to take a calm, ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/22/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Thurs, 4/22/10 US dollar getting very strong and continue to believe have situation where strengthening dollar is negative for all world stock markets and economies due to this making already heavy debt burdens even more difficult to maintain (since all debt ultimately denominated in US dollar and strengthening dollar makes sustaining this debt ever more expensive and difficult). Will be very difficult to turn patterns in US dollar even back to neutral, much less negative, any time soon and so this could become an increasing ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 4/21/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Weds, 4/21/10 Seeing some signs, and have “feeling,” that financial markets (stocks, bonds/notes, currencies, precious metals and crude) may be on verge of significant directional changes (i.e., stocks down, bonds/notes up, yen & US dollar up while other currencies down, precious metals down, crude down), but always difficult to “call” this type of thing and would only take day or two of opposite movement to make me change view on this. For some reason whenever see some very late weakness in stock futures ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 4/20/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Tues, 4/20/10 Two good rules that work almost all the time (and which I frequently have tough time following) are: 1) the spike rule, and 2) the rule that says anytime trend clearly up (or down) and get both price and SL on recent lows (or highs if trend down) can make case to initiate new longs (or shorts if trend down), I call this the “faith in trend” rule. ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 4/19/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Mon, 4/19/10 See today’s action as overall inconclusive in the various financial markets after Friday’s big down. but lack of any meaningful follow through to downside does add to case for Friday’s downs being against trend, news caused down spikes which rule says should be fairly quickly regained. However, if they are then this rule no longer in effect, meaning markets would then be clear to continue down. ... Read More
Comments as of close Fri, 4/16/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Fri, 4/16/10 Decent chance action on Friday may turn out to signal new directional moves in many markets. While moves were at least partly news caused (Goldman fraud charges) believe most of the spikes will turn out to be continuation spikes, beginning of new good sized moves, and so, for time being at least, will treat them as such. There is no question that over time the ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/15/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Thurs, 4/15/10 Had some surprisingly big weakness in most currencies and precious metals early last night (first part of european trading session) and this concerned me. Prices did come back OK later in european session and during US session but not great and quickly quite weak again this evening. This concerns me quite a bit and enough to feel may be best to go to sidelines in many of the financial markets (stocks, currencies and precious metals). ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 4/14/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Weds, 4/14/10 June S & P - Status - Bullish (concurrent). Observations - Big, solid up day for all stock indexes today and on chart has look of potential acceleration day to upside. This type of day that produces a chart that could lead to a sharp, fast up move. If this is going to be case then really should not see price back even very close to yesterday’s closing price levels. I, along with many others, have been skeptical of this bull move for past year and have been completely wrong. Tough to finally come in on long ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 4/12/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Mon, 4/12/10 Going to opening day for San Diego Padres baseball so putting out comments early today without seeing new charts. If see anything when get back home will add some additional comments later, but all of sudden patterns shaky on almost every market (except precious metals as still clearly positive there). Disappointing day since started out so well yesterday ... Read More
Comments as of close Fri, 4/9/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Fri, 4/9/10 Note: This will be last letter send out via email (unless you have paid). After today will have to go to web site (tradingdaybyday.com) to get these comments (click on commentaries at top of page). Will continue to see letter via email to all those who have paid. Trend changes are always most difficult time to trade since just cannot know for while whether ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/8/10
Trading Day by Day, copyright 2010 Comments as of close Thurs, 4/8/10 Nothing today to make me change overall view headed for some very good markets since see decent signs dollar may be making major top and commodities, especially precious metals, may be headed for good sized, sustained up moves. Cotton a little weaker than expected today, but not too surprising based on current patterns, and market “should” head higher again fairly soon (due to solid up trend). Never argue much if someone wants to take good profits, and have some now in crude, gold/silver and Au and ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 4/7/10
Have some nicely positive patterns in Crude, Gold/Silver, Aus and Ca$ and Cotton and so see any dips in these markets as good opportunities to add to longs. See good upside potential in all of them, possibly very good. While patterns in Euro and Swiss currently negative just do not trust these patterns enough to be/go short so prefer to pass. Pound looking more and more like has made some kind of significant bottom. Grains also may finally have made significant bottoms. Stocks too mixed for me at moment. Bonds “should” be a short but not my best market. Yen also “should” be a short, but US dollar looking shakier by day and so being short Yen may not work out. Had wrong date on yesterday’s abbreviated letter, do that from ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 4/5/10
Reports continuing to give me hard time since this time went against my basic rule of just going into reports with whatever lines indicate (took profits in bonds and yen before Friday report) and so, of course, this time should have held into reports. Just got tired of major reports coming out against me and taking away good profits in few minutes. Just one of the “laws” of trading that will invariably be wrong when try to out guess rules and reports. However, there was plenty of time to reshort after report came out and did so in bonds, passed on reshorting yen though, for whatever reason (probably due to low SL/price).One trait that differentiates so called professional traders from so-called amateur traders is the former have little or no problem getting back into positions after taking profits even when must do so at worse price. Have seen individuals unable to buy back in a nicely positive market if they take profits and then cannot buy again at a lower ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/1/10
Unusual day tomorrow since bunch of markets closed (including stock market) but stock futures open until about 45 minutes or so after the unemployment report and evidently bonds and currencies stay open few hours longer, but imagine will get very quiet after stock futures close. This may produce fast and exaggerated reactions to report. With stocks up today and bonds down this “should” indicate some kind of stronger economy report, but even if get this does not mean markets will react or end day as expected (after initial “knee jerk” reaction). Seeing a lot of downside warning signs in stocks now. Stocks have gone up for past year on basis economy would eventually improve. Lots of time when this happens and finally do get clear signs this economy is improving market will turn down for at least a while (the old buy the expectation, sell the reality deal). June S & P - Status - Bullish/crosscurrent. Observations - Had first real clear ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 3/30/10
When I was doing the daily market letter a few years ago there were a couple of aspects of it that I really did not like. The major one was the “business” part of it, the keeping track of who was subscribing, who had canceled, etc., and then (especially) doing the monthly billing. So this time am going to try a different approach. Am going to try this on a voluntary pay basis. Will continue to provide daily (almost, may skip a day once in while) letter, but will ask anyone who finds it of value to pay at least $50 (or more if feel worth it) at end of each month. Very soon will post letter to web site only (tradingdaybyday.com) rather than send it out by e-mail (has taken longer to set this up than anticipated and not quite there yet). If go to tradingdaybyday.com and look at top of page will see “commentaries.” There will find recent letters and on right a “button” for “donations” at PayPal. If want me to continue putting ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 3/29/10
Very strong day for commodities and only “reason” heard for this was moderate weakness in dollar and this not enough to justify size and breadth of upside in commodities. Have been noticing some increasing strength in commodities past week or so and this becoming more pronounced. Have to keep in mind that Fed increased money supply dramatically starting in Sept of 2008 and theory is it takes about 15 to 18 months for this to have impact on prices. Now at 18 months from the start of this extreme increase in money supply. If this starting to impact then commodity prices may be headed for a period (two to six months, or longer) of general commodity strength. Have always found that most individual futures traders tend to do best when have general bull markets in commodities so hope this is what lies ahead. What need to add to this potential bullishness would be turn down in dollar and while lines there at moment still very positive, have seen the occasional time where ... Read More
Comments as of close Fri, 3/26/10
In Thursday letter mentioned that have a personal rule that says if take a bad hit on one or two markets I then will always look for other positions where might have good profits and if those markets are short term overextended I will take profits on those positions even if line rules say to hold longer. Idea is that from a psychological view if don’t do this, take some good profits to offset some surprising losses, and then next day the profits start to disappear it can be very discouraging. Followed this rule on Thursday night by taking good profits on shorts in Euro and Silver and this made big difference since if had held these positions profits would have diminished considerably on Friday. Psychology is very important in this game and sometimes have to violate normal “line” rules and follow some “psychological” rules like this one.If you follow news are probably aware of unusual treatment of Israeli Prime Minister by US President, ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 3/25/10
As mentioned yesterday I don’t like going against lines since when wrong feel like an idiot and that’s how feel at moment about being long any of the grains today. Mistake was way over anticipating potentially positive line patterns and too much emphasis on very bullish COT data. These are my most common two mistakes. Problem is when do correctly anticipate trend change where have big support from COT data can lead to situation where have good base position that can add to on what tends to be good sized, sustained moves. This makes the temptation to anticipate in this type of situation very strong. When do this correctly I tend to forget it quickly since treat it as expected, but when wrong it is costly and takes while to forget. All can do when anticipate a line pattern and are wrong is just take loss and go to sidelines until have better, more solid situation. Worst thing of going against lines and being wrong is not only take losses, but also miss out on gains so ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 3/24/10
Lots of big moves today but only ones big enough to change overall pictures were the big downs in Bonds/Notes and Yen. See those two as now negative enough for some shorts since see odds as favoring today’s down spikes turning out to be continuation spikes, not aberration spikes. Stock patterns becoming more mixed so see sidelines as better than longs there now. Going against lines at moment, but still prefer longs in Beans, Meal and Wheat (also possibly in Corn), although need some up there soonJune S & P - Status - Bullish (to Neutral)/weakly crosscurrent. Observations - Pattern mildly positive but if should see any weakness next few days pattern will turn solidly mixed/neutral. While still positive, pattern so tenuously positive prefer sidelines for time being. No next day signal from VIX today since market down and VIX up, but VIX was up 1.20 and this quite a bit more than would expect on such a small down day and so see this as small negative ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 3/23/10
Bad day for corn and wheat and this make beans a little more vulnerable for short term downside as well. However, today’s down in corn/wheat does set up potentially very positive line patterns and this potential will turn to reality if can turn SL’s (in corn and wheat) back up next few days. So grain group shaky for next day or two and when this case OK to go to sidelines until pictures better, but still see such good upside potential prefer to give anticipation longs more chance. This just a trading decision and sometimes right on these, sometimes wrong. Sideways, and especially any up, tomorrow in grains would be much more positive than negative.Euro on verge of breaking to new long term lows and this time may be able to do it since just turned clearly Bearish/concurrent to downside and when this case odds always favor more downside. Shorts in Pound still OK, but like Euro’s a little better at moment.June S & P - Status - ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 3/22/10
Continue to feel long side of grains (especially beans, meal and wheat) have lots of upside potential and patterns turning increasingly positive. Still not quite solidly positive yet so any longs here are anticipation longs so far, but see excellent risk/reward and good upside odds so see being at least lightly long now with idea of adding over next few days as good approach. Precious metals and crude have quite negative patterns for short term so see odds still favoring lower there. Currencies tough to call, as always, but patterns increasingly negative on Euro and Pound, and increasingly less positive on Au and Ca $.June S & P - Status - Bullish (to Neutral)/mildly concurrent. Observations - Good upside reversal day with market down overnight due to Health Reform bill passing, but as usually does came back well to close firm. The negative relative strength saw on Friday was immediately reversed early in day and relative strength stayed quite ... Read More
Comments as of close Fri, 3/19/10
I wrote comments for Thursday night but somehow did not get them sent out. Other than pointing out the clear negative relative strength in precious metals group not much was worthwhile in comments so did not miss much. On Friday had similar negative relative strength in stock group, will have to see if this negative warning sign as effective as precious metals sign was on Thursday.June S & P - Status - Bullish/Neutral (marginally concurrent). Observations - Pattern mildly positive but overall very mixed picture here. With market short and intermediate term overbought, action on Friday poor and fairly negative strength on Friday (Russell 2K and NDX weaker than S & P and Dow) see sidelines as best, but could surprise on downside (negative relative strength a short term negative warning sign). Bottom line - Lines marginally positive but prefer sidelines.June Bonds/Notes - Status - Neutral (to Bullish)/crosscurrent. Observations - Lines now little ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 3/17/10
Trading against the trend is like swimming up stream, going against the current. You have to have almost constant pressure against the trend to keep going since if pause for too long will run the risk that the trend (current) will take over again and quickly push you back to where you started from, or worse. Recently have been going against strong trends in Euro, Swiss and Dollar, it may now be time to stop doing this since could be close to trend reasserting itself. Whenever go against trend always have to be very alert to too much pausing of counter trend pressure since when trend reasserts itself it tends to do so quickly and sharply (action of grains week and half ago was good example of this - sudden, sharp reasserting of clear down trend after month or so of counter trend upside pressure).What I am always trying to do is be positioned with what the lines will be over the next two, three days. Start with what lines are at moment and then try to anticipate where ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 3/15/10
Despite decent down day in Euro/up in Dollar still see decent short term positives in most foreign currencies/negatives in dollar, but will need to see dollar weakness tomorrow or will have to give up on this idea. On straight line pattern basis only markets with clear patterns are the grains (all quite negative, even Bean Oil getting that way now). Continue to feel the dollar will be key and despite today’s decent up there, still see patterns there as short term negative (for dollar, positive all other currencies except Pound) and still a chance something significant going on in way of potential trend changes, but really need to see resumed weakness in dollar tonight/tomorrow (strength in Euro). So on straight, strict line basis nothing really attractive at moment, but if should get some decent up next day or two in foreign currencies and precious metals patterns would go at least temporarily Bullish/concurrent.June S & P - Status - Neutral (to ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 3/11/10
In writing these comments I try to follow a trading advice version of the Hippocratic Oath, first do no harm. Past few days have not done very good job of following this, will try to do better.The deflation/inflation fight mentioned week or so ago (between deflation markets - bonds/notes, yen and dollar - and inflation markets - stocks, foreign currencies and precious metals) may be resolving itself in favor of the inflation markets, at least temporarily. This somewhat strange since have so many commodities selling off so much and persistently, but seems like story in stocks, bonds/notes, currencies and precious metals (plus crude and copper) is one primarily of liquidity and currency relative values at moment. Basis lines see window of opportunity for upside of currencies (downside in dollar) and precious metals next few days so could surprise on upside. This would be typical since past few days of sudden sharp downs in gold/silver have probably cleaned out a lot ... Read More
Comments as of close Thurs, 4/3/10
Basis lines pictures not getting mixed/shaky and when this happens always tougher. On big picture (monthly charts) see big downside left in Euro (& Swiss to lesser extent) and Pound, and big upside in Yen and Bonds/Notes. Feel fairly confident of additional good upside in precious metals and so want to be/go long gold/silver on any decent dips, and had one today. Stocks too unsure of at moment to be in, but see downside as side with the potential. Still see upside as side with the potential in grains, but lines too negative now to be/go long, and can fully justify shorts in Meal, and to lesser extent Beans, will go with Meal.Big report tomorrow AM, monthly unemployment, and really don’t like this report since can foul up normal price energy flows, but part of the game. Longs in Bonds/Notes and Yen still clearest, most solid, basis line rules (and Yen now on good sized dip, even though only one day), but also like long side of precious metals (as long as Gold ... Read More
Comments as of close Weds, 3/3/10
To add to yesterday’s comments on how certain markets tend to lead in some groups, such as stocks and precious metals. When I look at the four stock indexes (the mini’s) what I do is compare the Russell 2000 to the S & P and the NDX to the Dow. I consider “normal” to be when Russell move is about half the S & P. So if S & P up 10.00 then would expect Russell to be up about 5.00 (plus or minus point or so). Monday AM right from the open and throughout the day the Russell was up more that the S & P and on close was up 1.20 more. This showed definite Russell relative strength and so was solid positive sign from open into close. When comparing NDX to Dow view “normal” as mini NDX should move about half the mini Dow (in dollar terms). As with Russell, on Monday right from open the NDX was up more than Dow and on close was up about $500 a contract while mini Dow was only up about $375. This showed NDX relative strength and so also was a ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 3/2/10
Had some outside commitments on my time today and so not enough time or energy to put out full report tonight, but in metals, currencies and crude had today what thought would see on Monday - solid up day. Patterns in stocks, bonds, metals, currencies and crude all still quite positive and so “should” go higher.Last night (Monday night) had good example how Plat tends to lead gold and silver. Plat was firm all night while other two were on weak side. Once saw this and with patterns on all three still positive was enough reason to go back long. If trade gold/silver should always keep an eye on what platinum is doing. This second time in past week independent strength in platinum has been big help to me in getting/staying long gold/silver. I don’t trade plat since just too thin, but for whatever reason it does tend to lead the other two.Same with stocks in that Russell and NDX consistently tend to lead Dow and S & P. For second day ... Read More
Comments as of close Mon, 3/1/10
Tough day, got a remedial lesson in dangers of trading against trend. Beginning to think deflation scenario going to win out, but over the years have found that grains/cotton tend to move on their own. At moment the clearest/most solid patterns remain long sides of cotton, bonds/notes and yen, but each of these short term overbought so may need to pause/dip a little before can move up decently (although cotton pressure to upside relentless). Needed dollar to push lower to add to argument for some kind of top there and instead it was quite firm, and continue to feel dollar may be key to most other markets next significant direction move.Precious metals have moved up recently despite lack of weakness in dollar and so no reason cannot continue to do so, but wanted to see some acceleration to upside today in those markets and did not get it, but maybe tomorrow. However, longer they fail to move up decently from these levels the more precarious longs will be.A ... Read More
Comments Thursday night, 2/25/10
I am going to try to post nightly comments on my web site starting this weekend (not quite set up for it yet). Was going to wait and start this weekend, but have some potentially very good patterns tonight so want to make some quick comments.Future always unknown but have some potentially very positive patterns in precious metals and foreign currencies (Canadian and Australian dollars, Euro and Swiss (Pound also but not so much), and potentially very negative pattern in US Dollar. Stocks also potentially quite positive. (Had a next day up signal for stocks from VIX today.) If can get even moderate up day in these markets tomorrow (down in dollar) would generate some very positive line patterns, need to get that up day though. Stronger the close the better the odds are starting a good sized, sustained up move. Unchanged (or only slightly higher) or especially lower closes tomorrow (Friday) and sidelines would be indicated (need to turn the SL’s up and ... Read More
Comments as of close Tues, 5/4/10
Comments as of close Tues, 5/4/10 I will no longer be posting the letter here. It is not fair to those who are paying. So if you would like to continue to see the daily letter you will need to “donate” at least $50 by clicking on the paypal button to the right. Do this and I will add you to the mailing list. At the end of May I will decide whether to continue publishing the daily letter and if so how much to charge. ... Read More